Will US Dollar Get Cheaper?

I read some articles, and try to write down some thoughts whether US dollar will get cheaper from today. The following points you may read and comment, hope it will help them who need prediction of exchange rate:

1. Money has flowed out of dollars into euros since August last year. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s been trying to pry the U.S. out of its housing mess, he’s cut interest rates to artificially low levels (2%). Meanwhile, the Europeans haven’t given enough weight to the risk of recession, and therefore haven’t cut rates. The last move was a hike in rates to 4.25%.
2. Last week Federal Reserve decided to not increase the interest rate (still 2%). When the interest rates in one country are higher than another (all things being equal), money will flow to the country that pays higher interest rates.
3. These days US dollar is incredibly cheap versus its major trading partners – the cheapest it’s ever been.
4. Prices in Europe are insane for Americans. Everything is so expensive: taxi fare, hotel cost, food … the US dollar falling lower, crashing trough the psychological barrier of over $1.50 to the euro. For several months year 2008 European currencies are as expensive as they’ve ever been.
5. Whereas countries that use euro are forbidden to overspend by more than 3%, the U.S. government routinely overspends by more that 6%. With the economic stimulus package, a further 1% has been added to debt loan. Governmental debt is a problem for U.S.A.
6. American’s personal debt, which is high, is also a problem.
7. In the other side, United Kingdom has even higher personal debt level than Americans. This means United Kingdom is vulnerable to all the same problems as the US. Although United Kingdom doesn’t use euro, its problem may affect euro.
8. May be it is not a prediction about long-term interest-rate movements, but as we look ahead, the interest-rate trends may reverse. With credit has become harder to obtain, Europe is sliding toward recession. Manufacturing is down in part because European companies can’t compete anymore because of price reason. Their products are too expensive at these exchange rates.
9. United Kingdom and the rest of Europe originally thought they were immune to the problems U.S. is experiencing. But it’s turned out they’re not… So the interest rate advantage Europe has enjoyed over the U.S. could be ending.
10. Interest rates are a key tool central bankers use to head off recessions. Soon, Europeans may need to cut interest rates to “save” their economies.
11. Meanwhile, U.S. has already done this. Federal Reserve may need to raise U.S. interest rates from their artificially low levels.
12. The euro “rubber band” is stretched as far as it’s ever been stretched. That means expect a rise in the dollar, and a fall in the euro.